Is it too late to buy AST SpaceMobile? - $ASTS Deep Dive

TLDR: We rate $ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) a BUY

Avg. Price: $65.83

Entry Weight: 4.4%

We started a position in $ASTS because it is not a “satellite stock” in the way people assume. It is a potential upgrade to the global mobile network, a cellular layer in the sky that works on normal smartphones and gets sold through carriers. If they execute, this becomes infrastructure. Infrastructure gets paid, gets embedded, and gets hard to displace.

Here is the business in plain English. ASTS is building satellites that act like cell towers in low Earth orbit. When you leave terrestrial coverage, your phone is meant to roam onto the satellite layer, without a special handset, without an antenna, without changing your behaviour. That matters because it removes friction. The adoption problem disappears if the user experience feels like normal roaming.

The real reason I’m bullish is distribution. Carriers already own the customer relationship, billing, SIMs, retail channels, and spectrum. ASTS is not trying to win consumers one by one. It is trying to plug into carriers and let the carriers scale it. That is the difference between a niche product and a global rollout. Partnerships are slow to win and sticky once embedded, which is why they function like a moat.

Vodafone has publicly demonstrated a satellite video call from a regular smartphone using ASTS technology. Verizon and AT&T have been involved in direct-to-device trials. Verizon has also been reported as having a commercial agreement with ASTS for direct-to-cell services with a 2026 rollout path. Those are the right signals. Demos show capability, carrier involvement shows distribution, and commercialisation timelines create a real scoreboard.

So what are we actually underwriting? Execution gates. This is still a build phase, which means the income statement will look ugly and revenue will be lumpy for a while. The company’s job is to turn spend into satellites deployed, coverage expanded, and reliable service that carriers can sell. The key financial reality is that this is capital-intensive, so liquidity and financing discipline matter as much as technology. The enemy is dilution. The reward is that if execution stays tight, confidence rises, the cost of capital falls, and the stock rerates as the network becomes real.

The reason the upside can be extreme is simple. The addressable market is global because coverage gaps are global. The customer acquisition is not a retail battle because carriers already have the customers. And the product is not “nice to have” in many use cases; it is essential coverage where towers don’t exist, are too expensive, or get knocked out. If ASTS becomes the roaming layer behind multiple major carriers, the company starts to look less like a speculative tech name and more like a new kind of telecom infrastructure provider.

That is also why I’m not obsessed with technical analysis here. Charts can help with entry timing, but this stock will ultimately move on deployment progress and commercialisation, not fib levels. If you want to trade around it, fine. My core thesis is much simpler: the moat is distribution plus direct-to-device capability, and the payoff comes when coverage and reliability make commercialisation inevitable.

Bottom line, we started a position in ASTS because it is one of the few names attempting true direct-to-device broadband on standard phones at carrier scale. The opportunity is huge, the path is execution, and the risks are real, mainly delays and dilution. I’m bullish because the problem is massive, the model scales through carriers, and early proof points suggest this is moving from vision to rollout.

LONG $ASTS